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Load Forecast

This page contains information related to ERCOT’s Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) and Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF).

Long Term Load Forecast

The Long-Term Load forecast is an hourly forecast for the next 10 years.  It is based on forecasted economic data and historical weather from 2006 – 2020.

ERCOT load summer peak 2023
ERCOT annual energy forecast 2023
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2023 Long-Term Load Forecast Reports

2023 ERCOT Monthly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast
Contains ERCOT Monthly Peak Demand and Energy values.
Jan 18, 2023 - xlsx - 15.9 KB
2023 Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast
Contains an explanation of how the ERCOT Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast was developed.
Jan 18, 2023 - pdf - 650.4 KB
2023 ERCOT Hourly Forecast
Contains ERCOT and Weather Zone hourly values for their gross load forecasts, PV forecasts, and net load forecasts.
Jan 20, 2023 - xlsx - 29.9 MB

2023 Load Forecast Scenarios

90th Percentile Summer Non-Coincident Peak by Weather Zone
Contains the 90th percentile weather zone summer peak demand forecasts for 2023 – 2032. Includes the gross 90th percentile summer peak forecast, net 90th percentile summer peak forecast, and the Rooftop PV impact on the 90th percentile summer peak demand.
Jan 18, 2023 - xlsx - 17.3 KB
ERCOT Peak Demand Scenarios
Contains ERCOT summer peak demand forecast scenarios for 2023 – 2032. These scenarios are based on using historical weather years in the forecast model. Includes the ERCOT gross summer peak forecast, ERCOT net summer peak forecast, and the Rooftop PV impact on ERCOT’s summer peak demand. Also includes the 90th percentile forecast (denoted as P90).
Jan 18, 2023 - xlsx - 29 KB
Weather Zone Coincident Peak Forecast
Contains weather zone coincident summer peak demand forecasts for 2023 -2032. Includes the gross summer peak forecast, net summer peak forecast, and the Rooftop PV impact on summer peak demand.
Jan 18, 2023 - xlsx - 18.1 KB
Weather Zone Non-Coincident Peak Forecast
Contains weather zone non-coincident summer peak demand forecasts for 2023 – 2032. Includes the gross summer peak forecast, net summer peak forecast, and the Rooftop PV impact on summer peak demand. Also contains historical non-coincident peak demands.
Jan 18, 2023 - xlsx - 19.6 KB

Mid-Term Load Forecast

The Mid-Term Load forecast (MTLF) is an hourly forecast for the next 168 hours based on current weather forecast parameters within each Weather Zone. The MTLF Monthly Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) chart below contains average MAPE values for the 3 hour ahead, 6 hour ahead, and day ahead forecast horizons for each calendar month. The MTLF Monthly Backcast chart contains the average model error for each calendar month. Note that a backcast is created by using the current MTLF forecast models with actual weather data and calendar variables (day-of-week, holiday) as input. The backcasted values are then compared to the actual load values to arrive at model error.

MTLF Monthly MAPE
MTLF Monthly Backcast
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Average Forecast Error
Frequency Over Under Forecast
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2023 Mid-Term Load Forecast Reports

Day-Ahead Backcast Report
MTLF forecast metrics and the MTLF backcast metrics on a monthly average.
Jan 13, 2023 - xlsx - 36.8 KB