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Resource Adequacy

ERCOT counts on an adequate supply of electric generation to meet demand and maintain capacity reserves to help support grid reliability if shortfalls occur.

This section includes access to ERCOT market studies and analysis materials related to resource adequacy as well as ERCOT short- and long-term forecast reports on generation supply and demand.

Reports produced prior to 2012 are located in the yearly archive section of Reports and Presentations

All other archives are located at the bottom of the page.

Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA)

The MORA report serves as an early indicator of the hour-by-hour risk that ERCOT may need to issue an Energy Emergency Alert or call for controlled outages to maintain grid reliability for the reporting month. The MORA report uses probability-based modeling to determine the likelihood that ERCOT will have insufficient operating reserves during each monthly peak electric demand period. The reports also include scenarios to show demand and resource availability for selected hours based on expected grid conditions.

The MORA report is issued on the first Friday of each month. A MORA is released two months prior to the reporting month; for example, the planned release of the MORA report for August would be the first Friday in June.

Monthly Generator Interconnection Status Report

View the latest public interconnection information on planned generation resources in the ERCOT Region.

Charts and accompanying data showing annual and monthly changes in resource capacity by fuel type for the ERCOT Region, incorporating both historical additions and planned projects being studied as part of the interconnection request process. The chart are updated on a monthly basis, and include natural gas, wind, solar, and battery storage resource types.

Resource Adequacy Assessments Resource Adequacy Assessments

The SARA report is no longer produced. ERCOT now prepares the Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA), posted at the top of this page.

2022 Zonal Reliability Study
Proof-of-concept study to investigate probabilistic reliability modeling using a multi-zone representation of the ERCOT grid rather than a single system region. The study examined how a target reliability standard level (0.1 expected loss-of-load events per year) can be maintained for individual regions and the system as a whole by increasing zonal generation capacity or expanding transmission between zones.
Jan 9, 2023 - pdf - 1.3 MB

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

This section consists of documents and data files pertaining to the Economically Optimum and Market Equilibrium Reserve Margin (EORM/MERM) reporting initiative, which was authorized by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as part of Project Number 42302, "Review of the Reliability Standard in the ERCOT Region." The current minimum target reserve margin established by the ERCOT Board of Directors is 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of unexpectedly high demand or levels of generation plant outages.

Drought Risk

Periodic drought risk reports based on ERCOT's risk monitoring tool that screens for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT Region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. See "Related Documents" under the 2019 Resource Adequacy webpage for documentation of the tool methodology and other related reports.

Sep 7, 2023 - pdf - 141.7 KB
Apr 26, 2016 - xlsx - 230 KB

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of summer/winter wind and solar peak average capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies. Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) reports and materials are also posted here.

Dec 9, 2022 - pdf - 2.5 MB
ERCOT Wind Profiles and Solar PV Profiles, 1980-2022
Users must register for the ERCOT Public Portal to access files. Follow the report link and login or create an account in order to download the files. Be sure to use a non-ERCOT email address when registering.
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