To endorse and forward the 12/17/09 PRS Recommendation Report and Impact Analysis for NPRR198 to TAC.
Nov 10, 2009
This Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) would provide guidance to ERCOT to use the peak Load forecast posted pursuant to P.U.C. Subst. R. 25.505, Resource Adequacy in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Power Region, for the next 12 months for the Reliability Must-Run (RMR) study, except with respect to the Load in the RMR local area. This aligns the Load forecast period with the RMR contract period and ensures that the Load forecast used for the analysis is one with a reasonable probability of occurrence.
This NPRR also proposes non-substantive administrative changes, shown with the author "ERCOT Market Rules."
The current process around how RMR studies are conducted is not defined in the Nodal Protocols. Providing guidance for the process ensures that a Load level that ERCOT actually anticipates will be used for the RMR study. Presently, ERCOT typically uses the aggregate non-coincident peak Loads provided by the transmission owners that are used to develop the five-year Steady State Working Group (SSWG) planning cases. Because these Loads are both peak and non-coincident, they tend to overestimate actual Load during any single period. Employing a process that uses a Load forecast that ERCOT actually anticipates to occur in the next 12 months will ensure that RMR is procured only when needed to serve Load that will likely occur. The present process of using a Load forecast that significantly overestimates load could result in procuring RMR when it is not needed. Procuring RMR when it is not needed increases costs to Load and undermines opportunities for competitive generation in ERCOT’s energy-only market.