This Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) formalizes reporting of alternative Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) forecasts in the Report on Capacity, Demand, and Reserves in the ERCOT Region (CDR). The current Protocol language requires estimating only “expected” future PRMs by risk period, season, and year. Reliance on single point forecasts fails to recognize key uncertainties that can yield a range of potential PRM outcomes, thereby downplaying the extent of risks to resource adequacy.
In recognition of this shortcoming, ERCOT has in past CDRs included alternative PRM scenarios as supplemental information. This NPRR would require a range of PRM scenarios to be included in future CDRs. Formally requiring the reporting of a range of PRM scenarios, as opposed to singling out one potential future, reflects a best practice for resource adequacy risk assessment and promotes appropriate messaging regarding potential resource adequacy futures.
