
Resource Adequacy 2017
Drought Risk
ERCOT developed a drought risk monitoring tool to screen for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. The documents available in this section include summaries of the results of this analysis, documentation of the tool methodology, and other related reports.
Drought Risk Analysis Reports
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ERCOT Drought Risk Prediction November 2017
(Dec 29, 2017 – pdf – 340.4 KB) -
ERCOT Drought Risk Prediction August 2017
(Sep 01, 2017 – pdf – 397.1 KB) -
ERCOT Drought Risk Prediction May 2017
(May 30, 2017 – pdf – 256.2 KB)
Related Documents
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Retrospective Analysis of the 2010-2015 Drought in ERCOT
(Jun 16, 2016 – zip – 1.4 MB) -
Reservoir Prediction Example
(Apr 26, 2016 – xlsx – 230 KB)
Generator Interconnection Status Report
View the latest public interconnection information on generation resources in the ERCOT region.
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GIS REPORT December 2017
Generator interconnection activity for December
(Jan 02, 2018 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT November 2017
Generator interconnection activity for November
(Dec 04, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT October 2017
Generator interconnection activity for October
(Nov 03, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT September 2017
Generator interconnection activity for September
(Oct 19, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT August 2017
Generator interconnection activity for August. Revised to include missing Project Date column in Full Study Table and change IE Name for a resource in IA Table
(Sep 13, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT July 2017
Generator interconnection activity for July
(Aug 02, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT June 2017
Generator interconnection activity for June
(Jul 03, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT May 2017
Generator interconnection activity for May
(Jun 01, 2017 – xlsx – 1.4 MB) -
GIS REPORT April 2017
Generator interconnection activity for April
(May 01, 2017 – xlsx – 1.3 MB) -
GIS REPORT March 2017 Revised
Generation interconnection activity for March, revised to report the synchronization approval for the PHR Peaker project (INR 14INR0038)
(Aug 09, 2018 – xlsx – 738.4 KB) -
GIS REPORT March 2017
Generator interconnection activity for March
(Apr 04, 2017 – xlsx – 738.4 KB) -
GIS REPORT February 2017
Generator interconnection activity for February
(Mar 02, 2017 – xlsx – 2.2 MB) -
GIS REPORT January 2017
Generator interconnection activity for January 2017
(Feb 01, 2017 – xlsx – 1.3 MB) -
GIS REPORT December 2016
Generator interconnection activity for December 2016
(Jan 04, 2017 – xlsx – 1.7 MB)
Resource Adequacy Assessments
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy
The SARA is based on criteria similar to CDR, however the seasonal outlook reflects near-term weather forecasts, generator outage trends, and updates to the generation fleet.
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Spring 2018 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2017 – xlsx – 126.4 KB) -
Spring 2018 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2017 – pdf – 259.4 KB) -
Winter 2017-18 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2017 – xlsx – 125.4 KB) -
Winter 2017-18 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2017 – pdf – 259.4 KB) -
Winter 2017-18 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Sep 07, 2017 – xlsx – 128.5 KB) -
Winter 2017-18 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Sep 07, 2017 – pdf – 260.9 KB) -
Fall 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Sep 07, 2017 – xlsx – 128.5 KB) -
Fall 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Sep 07, 2017 – pdf – 234 KB) -
Fall 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(May 02, 2017 – xlsx – 122.6 KB) -
Fall 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(May 02, 2017 – pdf – 869.7 KB) -
Summer 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(May 02, 2017 – xlsx – 123.4 KB) -
Summer 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(May 02, 2017 – pdf – 885.1 KB) -
Summer 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Mar 01, 2017 – xlsx – 124.8 KB) -
Summer 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Mar 01, 2017 – pdf – 242 KB) -
Spring 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Mar 01, 2017 – xlsx – 126.3 KB) -
Spring 2017 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Mar 01, 2017 – pdf – 224.4 KB) -
Spring 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2016 – xlsx – 147.8 KB) -
Spring 2017 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2016 – pdf – 218.3 KB) -
Winter 2016-17 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2016 – xlsx – 145.4 KB) -
Winter 2016-17 Final Seasonal Assessment
(Nov 01, 2016 – pdf – 218.5 KB)
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report
This biannual report contains a 10-year forecast of electric use and expected generation resources.
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Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2017
(Dec 19, 2017 – xlsx – 285.9 KB) -
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2017
(Dec 19, 2017 – pdf – 813.2 KB) -
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2017
(May 02, 2017 – xlsx – 278.6 KB) -
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2017
(May 02, 2017 – pdf – 769.7 KB) -
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2016
(Dec 15, 2016 – xlsx – 276.5 KB) -
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2016
(Dec 15, 2016 – pdf – 767 KB)
Planning Reserve Margin Analysis
This section consists of documents and data files pertaining to the Economically Optimum Reserve Margin (EORM) reporting initiative, which was authorized by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as part of Project Number 42302, "Review of the Reliability Standard in the ERCOT Region." The current minimum target reserve margin established by the ERCOT Board of Directors is 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of unexpectedly high demand or levels of generation plant outages.
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ERCOT Study Process and Methodology Manual for EORM/MERM 12-12-2017 v1.0
Final document version with responses to stakeholder comments incorporated
(Dec 12, 2017 – docx – 756.2 KB) -
ERCOT Study Process and Methodology Manual for EORM MERM 11 3 2017 InitialDraft
Initial public draft for 30-day public review and comment period
(Nov 03, 2017 – docx – 753.9 KB) -
ERCOT EORM/MERM Stakeholder Comments Log, 9-28-2017 Update
(Sep 28, 2017 – pdf – 133.2 KB) -
Cost of New Entry Estimates for Combustion Turbine and Combined Cycle Plants in PJM
Report prepared for PJM Interconnection, Inc., by the Brattle Group and Sargent & Lundy.
(May 22, 2017 – pdf – 2.2 MB) -
ERCOT EORM/MERM Stakeholder Comments Log, 5-22-2017
Stakeholder comments and ERCOT responses on the EORM/MERM study project.
(May 22, 2017 – pdf – 89.2 KB) -
ERCOT EORM_Workshop 4-14-2017 Revised
EORM Workshop PowerPoint presentation. Reflects a revision to slide #31.
(May 16, 2017 – pptx – 7.9 MB) -
ERCOT Primer on the NERC Reference Margin Level 5-15-2017
Background information on NERC's Reference Margin Level and how it is used for resource adequacy reporting in NERC reliability assessment reports.
(May 16, 2017 – pdf – 196.9 KB) -
Estimating the Economically Optimal Reserve Margin in ERCOT Revised
Report prepared by The Brattle Group and Astrape Consulting for the Public Utilities Commission of Texas, filed January 31, 2014. This version comes from the Brattle Group’s Web site, and reflects post-filing corrections to page 63.
(May 16, 2017 – pdf – 3.2 MB)
Wind and Solar
Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak average capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.
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CDR Summer PeakAveWindCapacityPercentages 11-20-2017
Summer Season Wind Peak Average Capacity Contributions, updated to reflect 2017 summer historical data
(Nov 20, 2017 – xlsx – 32.4 KB) -
CDR Summer PeakAveSolarCapacityPercentages 11-20-2017
Summer Season Solar Peak Average Capacity Contributions, updated to reflect 2017 summer historical data
(Nov 20, 2017 – xlsx – 26.1 KB) -
CDR PeakAveWinterSolarCapacityPercentages 2016 2017
Solar Peak Average Capacity Contributions based on 2016-2017 winter season historical data
(Apr 27, 2017 – xlsx – 14.2 KB) -
CDR PeakAveWinterWindCapacityPercentages 2016 2017
Wind Peak Average Capacity Contributions based on 2016-2017 winter season historical data
(Apr 27, 2017 – xlsx – 16.7 KB) -
ERCOT SolarProfiles 1997-2015 CentralStation Existing 20161106
Simulated historical hourly solar generation profiles for existing central station facilities
(Feb 09, 2017 – zip – 2.2 MB) -
ERCOT SolarProfiles 1997-2015 CentralStation Future 20161106
Simulated historical hourly solar generation profiles for hypothetical future central station facilities
(Feb 09, 2017 – zip – 34 MB) -
ERCOT SolarProfiles 1997-2015 Distributed 20161106
Simulated historical hourly solar generation profiles for hypothetical distributed urban facilities
(Feb 09, 2017 – zip – 3.8 MB) -
ERCOT Solar SiteScreenHrlyProfiles Jan2017
Solar Profile Methodology Report
(Feb 09, 2017 – pdf – 1.6 MB) -
ERCOT 2015 Historical Hourly Wind Generation Profiles
Historical hourly wind generation profiles at 228 sites for the year 2015
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ERCOT 2014 Historical Hourly Wind Generation Profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – zip – 3.7 MB) -
ERCOT 2005-2013 Onshore Wind Generation Profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – zip – 33.2 MB) -
ERCOT 1997-2004 Onshore Wind Generation Profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – zip – 29.5 MB) -
ERCOT 1997-2013 Offshore Wind Generation Profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – zip – 1.4 MB) -
Memo Report AWST ERCOT 27Mar2015
Methodology Report for 1997-2013 Historical Wind Generation Profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – pdf – 506.9 KB) -
Memo Report AWST ERCOT 05312016
Methodology report for 2015 hourly wind generation profiles
(Feb 17, 2017 – pdf – 276.6 KB) -
CDR PeakAveFallSolarCapacityPercentages 1 27 2017
(Jan 27, 2017 – xlsx – 32.4 KB) -
CDR PeakAveFallWindCapacityPercentages 1 27 2017
(Jan 27, 2017 – xlsx – 57 KB) -
CDR Peak Ave Solar Capacity Percentages 11-7-2016
(Nov 30, 2016 – xlsx – 32.5 KB) -
CDR Peak Ave Wind Capacity Percentages 11-7-2016
(Nov 30, 2016 – xlsx – 88.5 KB)
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