MIS LOG IN

Resource Adequacy 2015

Correspondence and Other Information

View letters regarding adequacy.

Chairman Craven Crowell letter to Sen. Troy Fraser 7/16/13
Letter from ERCOT Board Chairman Craven Crowell to Sen. Troy Fraser regarding board action on reserve margin
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 50.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 182 KB
Letter from North American Electric Reliability Corporation
NERC letter to ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett on Resource Adequacy
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 266.8 KB
Sen. Troy Fraser Letter to ERCOT Board 7/15/13
Letter from Sen. Troy Fraser to ERCOT Board of Directors regarding target reserve margin
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 62.4 KB

Market Design Analysis

The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) and ERCOT Board have been evaluating possible approaches to encourage new generation development within the ERCOT region to maintain adequate capacity reserves. This section includes reports and presentations associated with this investigative effort, as well as materials with the PUC's review of the reliability standard for the ERCOT region.

ERCOT Analysis of the Interim Solution B
Analysis of proposal discussed at Jan. 24, 2013, PUC workshop
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 187.8 KB
Estimating the Value of Lost Load
Literature Review and Macroeconomic Analysis
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 1.2 MB
Impact Analysis Estimating Cost and Timeline to Implement ORDC B
Report to PUC on costs to implement operating response demand curve B+ proposal
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 234.6 KB
Impact Assessment of Real-Time Energy and Ancillary Services Coo
Report to PUC on costs to implement real-time energy and ancillary services cooptimization
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 894.5 KB
Newell Oct25 PUCT Workshop_Composite Options_10-19-2012
The Brattle Group report on 'composite' options for resource adequacy in ERCOT
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 745.4 KB
Feb 3, 2015 - pdf - 1.3 MB
White Paper - Back Cast of Interim Solution B+
Approximate pricing outcomes and estimates of Interim Solution B+ in 2011 and 2012 market conditions
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 702 KB

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

The ERCOT Board of Directors has established a minimum target reserve margin equal to 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of very high demand or unexpectedly high levels of generation plant outages. This section consists of reports that describe the methodology and results of studies that help the ERCOT Board determine the appropriate target reserve margin.

ERCOT Loss of Load Study-2013
Assumptions and Methodology
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 557.7 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 2.5 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 4.1 MB
Itron Evaluation of ERCOT's Forecasting Methodology
In December 2013, ERCOT engaged Itron to evaluate a new long-term forecasting framework. The framework includes a neural network (NN) model for each ERCOT zone (Zone) estimated over multiple historic periods and forecasted with a range of historic weath
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 1.1 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 5.5 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 23 KB

Previous Assessments

View previous CDR and SARA reports.

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 721.3 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 215 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 164.2 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 194.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 169 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 193.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 203.3 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 215.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 176.2 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 196 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 169.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 165.5 KB

Resource Adequacy Assessments

This biannual report contains a 10-year forecast of electric use and expected generation resources.

Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2013
Long-term assessment of generation and demand
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 648.8 KB

The SARA is based on criteria similar to CDR, however the seasonal outlook reflects near-term weather forecasts, generator outage trends, and updates to the generation fleet. 

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 192 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 673.6 KB
Sep 1, 2015 - xls - 235.5 KB
Sep 1, 2015 - pdf - 234.5 KB
May 1, 2015 - xls - 235 KB
May 1, 2015 - pdf - 236.3 KB
Mar 2, 2015 - pdf - 229.4 KB
Mar 2, 2015 - xls - 244 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 212.2 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 228.5 KB
Nov 2, 2015 - pdf - 885.1 KB
Nov 2, 2015 - xls - 239.5 KB
May 1, 2015 - xls - 226 KB
May 1, 2015 - pdf - 240 KB
Mar 2, 2015 - xls - 237 KB
Mar 2, 2015 - pdf - 232.7 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 215.6 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 200.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 209.2 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 239.5 KB
Sep 1, 2015 - pdf - 234.9 KB
Nov 2, 2015 - xls - 245.5 KB
Nov 2, 2015 - pdf - 886.9 KB

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.
CDR Peak Average Wind Capacity Percentages
Data used to determine Peak Average Wind Capacity Calculations Oct. 22, 2014
Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 132.5 KB
Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 6.5 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 102.1 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 122 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 11.9 MB
Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 11.4 MB
Wind shapes 1997-2014 (1997-2012 are updates of original files)
All wind shapes, 1997-2014 (Files reflect new weather prediction model. 1997-2012 are updates of the original posted files.)
Sep 23, 2015 - zip - 68.2 MB