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Resource Adequacy 2014

Correspondence and Other Information

View letters regarding adequacy.

Chairman Craven Crowell letter to Sen. Troy Fraser 7/16/13
Letter from ERCOT Board Chairman Craven Crowell to Sen. Troy Fraser regarding board action on reserve margin
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 50.5 KB
CT Margins Tables
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 182 KB
ERCOT CEO Resource Adequacy Update to NERC - Nov 2013
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 1.4 MB
ERCOT response to Jan. 14, 2013, letter from NERC
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 451.1 KB
Letter from North American Electric Reliability Corporation
NERC letter to ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett on Resource Adequacy
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 266.8 KB
Sen. Troy Fraser Letter to ERCOT Board 7/15/13
Letter from Sen. Troy Fraser to ERCOT Board of Directors regarding target reserve margin
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 62.4 KB

Generation Interconnection Status Report

View the latest information on generation resources in the ERCOT region.

GIS REPORT August 2014
GIS Report August 2014
Sep 2, 2014 - xls - 5.7 MB
GIS REPORT December 2014
Jan 5, 2015 - zip - 1.8 MB
GIS REPORT July 2014
Aug 1, 2014 - xls - 3.5 MB
GIS REPORT June 2014
Jul 10, 2014 - xls - 3.4 MB
GIS Report May 2014
Jun 3, 2014 - xls - 3.5 MB
GIS REPORT November 2014
Dec 2, 2014 - zip - 991.6 KB
GIS Report October 2014
Nov 3, 2014 - zip - 1.8 MB
GIS Report September 2014
GIS Report September 2014
Oct 3, 2014 - xls - 5.7 MB

Market Design Analysis

The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) and ERCOT Board have been evaluating possible approaches to encourage new generation development within the ERCOT region to maintain adequate capacity reserves. This section includes reports and presentations associated with this investigative effort.

Brattle ERCOT Resource Adequacy Review
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 2.2 MB
ERCOT Analysis of the Interim Solution B
Analysis of proposal discussed at Jan. 24, 2013, PUC workshop
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 187.8 KB
Estimating the Value of Lost Load
Literature Review and Macroeconomic Analysis
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 1.2 MB
Impact Analysis Estimating Cost and Timeline to Implement ORDC B
Report to PUC on costs to implement operating response demand curve B+ proposal
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 234.6 KB
Impact Assessment of Real-Time Energy and Ancillary Services Coo
Report to PUC on costs to implement real-time energy and ancillary services cooptimization
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 894.5 KB
Newell Oct25 PUCT Workshop_Composite Options_10-19-2012
The Brattle Group report on 'composite' options for resource adequacy in ERCOT
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 745.4 KB
White Paper - Back Cast of Interim Solution B+
Approximate pricing outcomes and estimates of Interim Solution B+ in 2011 and 2012 market conditions
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 702 KB

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

The ERCOT Board of Directors has established a minimum target reserve margin equal to 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of very high demand or unexpectedly high levels of generation plant outages. This section consists of reports that describe the methodology and results of studies that help the ERCOT Board determine the appropriate target reserve margin.

2013 ERCOT Load Forecast Review with Itron 012714
Jan 22, 2014 - pdf - 2 MB
ERCOT Loss of Load Study-2013
Assumptions and Methodology
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 557.7 KB
ERCOT Loss of Load Study-2013-PartII
Study Results
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 2.5 MB
Itron ERCOT Growth Index Evaluation
Feb 13, 2014 - pdf - 4.1 MB
Itron Evaluation of ERCOT's Forecasting Methodology
In December 2013, ERCOT engaged Itron to evaluate a new long-term forecasting framework. The framework includes a neural network (NN) model for each ERCOT zone (Zone) estimated over multiple historic periods and forecasted with a range of historic weath
Jan 17, 2014 - pdf - 1.1 MB
Itron Premise Presentation 012014-2
Jan 22, 2014 - pdf - 5.5 MB
Preliminary Load Forecast 012014
Jan 22, 2014 - xls - 23 KB

Previous Assessments

View previous CDR and SARA reports.

Fall 2013 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 165 KB
Fall 2013 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 169.5 KB
Fall 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
May 1, 2014 - pdf - 721.3 KB
Fall 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Apr 30, 2014 - xls - 215 KB
Spring 2013 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 200 KB
Spring 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Mar 5, 2014 - pdf - 164.2 KB
Spring 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Mar 5, 2014 - xls - 194.5 KB
Spring 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 193.5 KB
Spring 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 169 KB
Summer 2013 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 190 KB
Summer 2013 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 235.5 KB
Summer 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
May 2, 2014 - pdf - 203.3 KB
Summer 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
May 2, 2014 - xls - 215.5 KB
Summer 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Mar 5, 2014 - pdf - 176.2 KB
Summer 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Mar 5, 2014 - xls - 196 KB
Winter 2013 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 168.5 KB
Winter 2013 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 164.8 KB
Winter 2013-2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 169.5 KB
Winter 2013-2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 165.5 KB

Resource Adequacy Assessments

This biannual report contains a 10-year forecast of electric use and expected generation resources.

Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2014
Dec 1, 2014 - xls - 559 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - December 2014
Dec 1, 2014 - pdf - 724.4 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - February 2014
Feb 27, 2014 - xls - 607.5 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - February 2014
Feb 27, 2014 - pdf - 683.2 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2013
Long-term assessment of generation and demand
Jan 7, 2014 - pdf - 648.8 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2013
Long-term assessment of generation and demand
Jan 7, 2014 - xls - 513.5 KB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2014
May 1, 2014 - pdf - 1.3 MB
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report - May 2014
May 1, 2014 - xls - 539.5 KB

The SARA is based on criteria similar to CDR, however the seasonal outlook reflects near-term weather forecasts, generator outage trends, and updates to the generation fleet. 

Fall 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Aug 29, 2014 - pdf - 673.6 KB
Fall 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment
Aug 29, 2014 - xls - 192 KB
Spring 2015 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Oct 31, 2014 - pdf - 212.2 KB
Spring 2015 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Oct 31, 2014 - xls - 228.5 KB
Winter 2014-15 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Aug 29, 2014 - pdf - 215.6 KB
Winter 2014-15 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment
Aug 29, 2014 - xls - 200.5 KB
Winter 2014-2015 Final Seasonal Assessment
Oct 31, 2014 - pdf - 209.2 KB
Winter 2014-2015 Final Seasonal Assessment
Oct 31, 2014 - xls - 239.5 KB

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.
CDR Peak Average Wind Capacity Percentages
Data used to determine Peak Average Wind Capacity Calculations Oct. 22, 2014
Nov 3, 2014 - xls - 132.5 KB
Concentrating Solar Data Sets
Dec 9, 2013 - zip - 6.5 MB
Existing sites wind shapes 120926 all years
Jan 21, 2014 - zip - 102.1 MB
Hypothetical sites wind shapes 120926
Jan 21, 2014 - zip - 122 MB
Photovoltaic Fixed Tracking Solar Data Sets
Dec 9, 2013 - zip - 11.9 MB
Photovoltaic Single Axis Tracking Solar Data Sets
Dec 9, 2013 - zip - 12.4 MB
Residential PV Solar Data Sets
Dec 9, 2013 - zip - 11.4 MB