Resource Adequacy 2016

Drought Risk

ERCOT developed a drought risk monitoring tool to screen for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. The documents available in this section include summaries of the results of this analysis, documentation of the tool methodology, and other related reports.

Drought Risk Analysis Reports
Related Documents

Generation Interconnection Status Report

View the latest public interconnection information on generation resources in the ERCOT region.

Resource Adequacy Assessments

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy

The SARA is based on criteria similar to CDR, however the seasonal outlook reflects near-term weather forecasts, generator outage trends, and updates to the generation fleet. 

Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report

This biannual report contains a 10-year forecast of electric use and expected generation resources.

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

The ERCOT Board of Directors has established a minimum target reserve margin equal to 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of very high demand or unexpectedly high levels of generation plant outages. This section consists of reports that describe the methodology and results of studies that help the ERCOT Board determine the appropriate target reserve margin.

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.