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Resource Adequacy 2019

Drought Risk

ERCOT developed a drought risk monitoring tool to screen for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. The documents available in this section include summaries of the results of this analysis, documentation of the tool methodology, and other related reports.

May 7, 2019 - pdf - 252.8 KB
Apr 26, 2016 - xlsx - 230 KB

Monthly Generator Interconnection Status Reports

View the latest public interconnection information on generation resources in the ERCOT region.

GIS Report
As of December 2018, all Generator Interconnection Status Reports will be posted at the link above.

Resource Capacity Trend Charts

Charts and accompanying data showing annual changes in resource capacity by fuel type for the ERCOT Region, incorporating both historical additions and planned projects being studied as part of the interconnection request process. The chart are updated on a monthly basis, and include natural gas, wind, solar, and battery storage resource types.

Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Charts, November 2019 Revised
This revised file reflects capacity changes for several installed solar and wind plants that were not updated during 2019 based on new Resource Asset Registration Forms (RARFs). Additionally, chart footnotes were added to clarify that newly installed capacity includes only those projects for which ERCOT has approved commercial operations. In contrast, ERCOT operational reports include additional project capacity that has been approved for grid synchronization but not commercial operations.
Dec 18, 2019 - xlsx - 73.6 KB
Aug 14, 2019 - xlsx - 72.1 KB
Jul 16, 2019 - xlsx - 71.7 KB
Jun 7, 2019 - xlsx - 75.2 KB

Resource Adequacy Assessments

The SARA report serves as an early indicator of the risk that ERCOT may need to call an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 (EEA1) due to having insufficient operating reserves during seasonal peak electric demand periods. It uses a scenario approach to illustrate a range of resource adequacy outcomes based on extreme system conditions. The SARA report relies on projected resource capabilities and peak demand forecasts similar to the CDR report. However, unlike the CDR, it incorporates generator outage trends to determine the expected amount of resource capacity available for operating reserves. 

Nov 7, 2019 - xlsx - 124 KB
Nov 7, 2019 - pdf - 269.3 KB
Nov 7, 2019 - xlsx - 123.5 KB
Nov 7, 2019 - pdf - 274.1 KB
Sep 9, 2019 - xlsx - 122.4 KB
Sep 9, 2019 - pdf - 274.9 KB
Sep 9, 2019 - xlsx - 120.7 KB
Sep 9, 2019 - pdf - 255.6 KB
May 8, 2019 - xlsx - 123.5 KB
May 8, 2019 - pdf - 259.4 KB
May 8, 2019 - xlsx - 122.3 KB
May 8, 2019 - pdf - 274.2 KB
Mar 5, 2019 - xlsx - 119.7 KB
Mar 5, 2019 - pdf - 284.9 KB
Mar 5, 2019 - xlsx - 121.9 KB
Mar 5, 2019 - pdf - 263.1 KB
Nov 1, 2018 - xlsx - 127.9 KB
Nov 1, 2018 - pdf - 270.2 KB
Nov 1, 2018 - xlsx - 127.2 KB
Nov 1, 2018 - pdf - 268.6 KB

This biannual report contains a multi-year forecast of summer/winter peak electricity demand and expected generation resources, along with the calculation of Planning Reserve Margins (PRMs). The PRM represents the excess resource capacity available to cover uncertainties in future peak electricity demand, generator availability and new resource supply. The PRM is expressed as a percentage of firm peak demand (i.e., demand that is not subject to interruption in exchange for incentive payments).

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

This section consists of documents and data files pertaining to the Economically Optimum Reserve Margin (EORM) reporting initiative, which was authorized by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as part of Project Number 42302, "Review of the Reliability Standard in the ERCOT Region." The current minimum target reserve margin established by the ERCOT Board of Directors is 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of unexpectedly high demand or levels of generation plant outages.

Jan 23, 2019 - pdf - 7.8 MB
Jan 23, 2019 - pdf - 7.8 MB
Estimation of the Market Equilibrium and Economically Optimal Reserve Margins for the ERCOT Region
Study prepared by The Brattle Group on new target reserve margin methodologies
Oct 12, 2018 - pdf - 7.8 MB
ERCOT Study Process and Methodology Manual for EORM/MERM 12-12-2017 v1.0
Final document version with responses to stakeholder comments incorporated
Dec 12, 2017 - docx - 756.2 KB
ERCOT Study Process and Methodology Manual for EORM MERM 11 3 2017 InitialDraft
Initial public draft for 30-day public review and comment period
Nov 3, 2017 - docx - 753.9 KB
Cost of New Entry Estimates for Combustion Turbine and Combined Cycle Plants in PJM
Report prepared for PJM Interconnection, Inc., by the Brattle Group and Sargent & Lundy.
May 22, 2017 - pdf - 2.2 MB
ERCOT EORM/MERM Stakeholder Comments Log, 5-22-2017
Stakeholder comments and ERCOT responses on the EORM/MERM study project.
May 22, 2017 - pdf - 89.2 KB
ERCOT EORM_Workshop 4-14-2017 Revised
EORM Workshop PowerPoint presentation. Reflects a revision to slide #31.
May 16, 2017 - pptx - 7.9 MB
ERCOT Primer on the NERC Reference Margin Level 5-15-2017
Background information on NERC's Reference Margin Level and how it is used for resource adequacy reporting in NERC reliability assessment reports.
May 16, 2017 - pdf - 196.9 KB
Estimating the Economically Optimal Reserve Margin in ERCOT Revised
Report prepared by The Brattle Group and Astrape Consulting for the Public Utilities Commission of Texas, filed January 31, 2014. This version comes from the Brattle Group’s Web site, and reflects post-filing corrections to page 63.
May 16, 2017 - pdf - 3.2 MB

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak average capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.

CDR Summer Peak Average Solar Capacity Percentages - November 2019 Update
This file reflects updated summer seasonal peak average capacity contributions based on the new methodology in Nodal Protocol Revision Request 9NPRR) 890.
Nov 26, 2019 - xlsx - 23 KB
CDR Summer Peak Average Wind Capacity Percentages - November 2019 Update
This file reflects updated summer seasonal values for all years based on the new methodology in Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) 980.
Nov 26, 2019 - xlsx - 142.8 KB
Nov 7, 2019 - csv - 35.3 MB
Solar PV hourly profiles: distributed rooftop for 1980-2018
Profiles developed for ERCOT by UL/AWS Truepower, LLC
Nov 8, 2019 - csv - 21.1 MB
Report on solar PV profile development for 1980-2018
Report developed for ERCOT by UL/AWS Truepower, LLC
Nov 7, 2019 - pdf - 736.4 KB
ERCOT Wind Patterns for Existing Sites, 1980-2017
Zip file containing the wind patterns, the final wind pattern development report, and a site ID key.
Sep 7, 2018 - zip - 76.1 MB
CDR Winter PeakAveWindCapacityPercentages 4 9 2018
Winter season wind capacity contributions, updated to reflect 2017-2018 winter historical data
May 14, 2018 - xlsx - 26.2 KB
CDR Winter PeakAveSolarCapacityPercentages 4 9 2018
Winter season solar capacity contributions, updated to reflect 2017-2018 winter historical data
May 14, 2018 - xlsx - 23.9 KB