NOTICE DATE: May 18, 2026

NOTICE TYPE: M-B051826-01 Legal

SHORT DESCRIPTION: Proposal to Adjust 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast

INTENDED AUDIENCE: All Market Participants

DAYS AFFECTED: June 1, 2026

LONG DESCRIPTION:  On May 18, 2026, ERCOT filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) a proposal to adjust the 2026 Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF) for use in ERCOT transmission planning and resource adequacy studies, including as a modeling input for the 2026 Triennial Reliability Assessment.  The LTLF was developed from data provided by Transmission and/or Distribution Service Providers (TDSPs) under the criteria of the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) Compliance Plan.  The 2026 Preliminary LTLF forecasts peak load of 278,003 megawatts (MW) in 2029 and 367,790 MW in 2032.

As further detailed in ERCOT's filing, ERCOT proposed two alternative methods to adjust the LTLF:

1. a historical realization rate adjustment assessing the energization success rate of computational Large Loads identified in response to ERCOT's 2025 Large Load Request for Information that were expected to energize by March 1, 2026; or
2.  use of the Batch Zero load forecast for Large Loads.

Although the adjusted load forecast under the Batch Zero option would not be finalized until mid-August 2026, ERCOT recommends the Batch Zero option because it will ultimately result in an actionable transmission development plan and therefore is a firmer starting point for anticipated load.  Furthermore, the Batch Zero load forecast is based on criteria (i.e., Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) 1325 and Planning Guide Revision Request (PGRR) 145) that have received greater industry scrutiny than the criteria in the 2026 RTP Compliance Plan.  The Revision Requests will be considered at the June 1-2, 2026 ERCOT Board of Directors meeting and subsequently considered by the PUCT at the July 9, 2026 Open Meeting.

Stakeholder comments on ERCOT's load forecast adjustment proposal should be filed in PUCT Project No. 59772.  The PUCT is scheduled to consider this adjustment proposal and any comments thereon at the PUCT's June 18, 2026 Open Meeting.

ACTION REQUIRED: Pursuant to 16 Texas Administrative Code Section 25.370(e)(2)(B), the deadline for public comment on ERCOT's request to adjust the LTLF is 14 days after ERCOT's May 18, 2026 filing: June 1, 2026.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:  ERCOT's May 18, 2026 filing  requesting that the PUCT approve an adjustment to the LTLF is available in PUCT Project No. 59772.

Additional details on the LTLF are available in ERCOT's April 15, 2026 filing in PUCT Project No. 58777.

CONTACT: If you have any questions, please contact your ERCOT Account Manager. You may also call the general ERCOT Client Services phone number at (512) 248-3900 or contact ERCOT Client Services via email at ClientServices@ercot.com.

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