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PRESS RELEASE
December 18, 2009
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 Print Version
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ERCOT Forecast Update Shows Adequate Reserves to 2013
More than 3,000 MW new generation online since May
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of the state, reported more than 3,000 megawatts (MW) have been added to the region’s operational generation since May, according to the capacity, demand and reserves December update released today.
Of the 3,140 MW of additional installed capacity, 1,689 MW is from new coal plants and 1,093 from natural gas plants.
Based on currently available information, the region’s reserve margins are forecast to remain above the 12.5 percent target minimum through 2013, but drop below the desired reserves beginning in 2014. Reserve margins reflect a snapshot of existing and currently-planned generation resources in excess of forecasted peak demand needed to ensure reliability for extreme temperatures and unexpected major outages.
The net changes in the five-year generation outlook since the May report show an increase in total resources for 2010, 2011 and 2012 of 1,049 MW, 681 MW and 708 MW, respectively.
In 2014 and 2015, there is a net decrease of 1,105 MW in generation, primarily due to the exclusion of the Cobisa Greenville Project, a 1,792 MW natural gas-fired power plant which had been scheduled for completion in 2013. Although the project has an air permit and transmission interconnection agreement, the project developers notified ERCOT in early December that their current expectations were such that the unit should not be included in the reserve margin calculation at this time.
“Reserve margins are calculated based on specific criteria for the inclusion of existing and planned resources and is based on information available to ERCOT at a snapshot in time,” said Dan Woodfin, director of system planning for ERCOT. “In the region’s deregulated market, it is the generation owner who bears the risk of investment and decides when and where to build new generation, and whether to retire or mothball existing generation, based on market conditions.”
Potential resources that are not included in the report’s generation total include more than 3,000 MW of generation capacity which is currently mothballed but could be brought back into service at the owners’ decision. Other potential resources include proposed units that have requested a full transmission interconnection study but lack either an air permit or signed interconnection agreement. The planned units under review total 2,751 MW with a 2010 in-service date, 8,704 MW for 2011 completion, and more than 20,000 MW by 2015.
NEW GENERATION INSTALLED
Major generation units that began commercial operations since the May report are:
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Site Name |
MW |
Fuel |
County, Zone |
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Barney Davis 2 |
344 |
Natural gas |
Nueces (South Zone) |
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Dansby Unit 3 |
48 |
Natural gas |
Brazos (North Zone) |
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JK Spruce 2 |
772 |
Coal |
Bexar (South Zone) |
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Nueces Bay |
701 |
Natural gas |
Nueces (South Zone) |
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Oak Grove 1 |
917 |
Coal |
Robertson (North Zone) |
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Pearsall |
100 |
Natural gas |
Frio (South Zone) |
RESERVE MARGINS* 2010-2015
|
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2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
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May 2007 |
8.3 |
6.7 |
5.9 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
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Dec 2007 |
14.0 |
11.2 |
10.5 |
8.2 |
n/a |
n/a |
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May 2008 |
17.3 |
15.0 |
14.5 |
12.3 |
n/a |
n/a |
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Dec 2008 |
21.2 |
18.7 |
17.8 |
17.9 |
15.8 |
n/a |
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May 2009 |
20.1 |
18.8 |
17.0 |
16.3 |
13.9 |
n/a |
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Dec 2009 |
21.8 |
19.9 |
18.1 |
14.7 |
12.3 |
10.2 |
*Reserve margins represent generation reserves in excess of forecasted peak demand needed to ensure reliability for extreme temperatures and unexpected major outages. The minimum reserve margin target of 12.5 percent was approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors in 2002.
Online:
ERCOT 2009 Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report – Winter Update (PDF)
ERCOT 2009 Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report – Winter Update (Excel)
| Contact | |
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| Dottie Roark | 512-225-7024 |