Topics:

• ERCOT Announces Revised Summer Demand Forecast
• Final Portion Of Siebel 7.7 Upgrade Completed
• New Human Resources Position Filled
• ERCOT Meeting Calendar

ERCOT Announces Revised Summer Demand Forecast

Reserve Margin Adjusted To 17 Percent

ERCOT has completed a revised load forecast (peak demand and energy) for 2005 through 2010, based on a new econometric forecasting model. The new 2005 peak demand forecast is 60,475 megawatts (MW), slightly higher than the previous forecast of 59,701 MW, and very close to the all-time peak demand of 60,095, recorded Aug. 7, 2003. The new econometric methodology uses a more refined temperature profile and forecasted economic variables, obtained from an economic forecasting service, to forecast hourly ERCOT demand from which the annual peak demand and energy are derived.

In addition, the calculated ERCOT capacity reserve margin has changed from a prior 14.7% level to 16.9%, based on the new forecast and a new method for calculating reserves in the region, approved last month by the ERCOT Board of Directors. The biggest difference in the new reserve margin formula is the assumption made on mothball generation. Under the new methodology, owners of mothballed generators are required to report to ERCOT their best estimate of the probability that each currently-mothballed generating unit will return and be available for service in each season of the next five years. Other changes include revised assumptions on dependable capacity from wind generation, direct current ties, and from certain generators capable of switching capacity to a neighboring grid.

The new projected values for peak demand and reserves are:

Load Forecast

Reserve Margin

ERCOT has set a minimum planning reserve margin requirement of 12.5%. Reserve margins are adequate through 2009 based on this minimum reserve margin. ERCOT staff believes the new generation, demand, and reserve assumptions are more representative of the resource outlook in the region. The Public Utility Commission has an open project evaluating ways to ensure future resources are developed timely, and ERCOT and its market participants are supporting that effort.

For additional details, see the presentation from the June 2, 2005 Technical Advisory Committee meeting (Item #10, Operations Update: Econometric Load Forecast Presentation), posted on the ERCOT Web site:

TAC Meeting - June 2, 2005

Final Portion Of Siebel 7.7 Upgrade Completed

The final portion of the Siebel 7.7 upgrade was completed May 21 with the successful implementation of eServices, a web-based application for service requests and settlement dispute inquiries. The main portion of the upgrade was completed April 15-17. The purpose of  the Siebel upgrade was to upgrade to a supported application and an Oracle 9i database and deliver all existing user functionality with no degradation in performance. This project represented a major technology platform upgrade setting ERCOT’s retail and service operations on a sound footing for the future.

New Human Resources Position Filled

Joyce Manske has joined ERCOT as manager of benefit planning and administration in Human Resources. She was most recently interim assistant human resources director for Texas State University in San Marcos, and brings over 20 years of experience in human resources and business planning to this newly created role at ERCOT. Joyce will be managing all the activities surrounding ERCOT’s benefit programs, including medical, dental, vision, 401(k), Money Purchase Plan, and others.

ERCOT Meeting Calendar

June 2005