Winter electricity demands expected to increase by 7.5 percent

Austin – A recent analysis conducted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) of the bulk power markets in Texas, has concluded that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has prepared for and been responsive to, transmission constraints in the state of Texas. The report comes on the heels of the news that winter electricity demand is expected to reach an all-time high during the 2000/2001 season.

The report by the Commission was well received by ERCOT CEO Tom Noel. "The increased demand for power we have seen this year coupled with the significant generating capacity under construction across the state, is certainly going to stress our transmission lines. We are pleased that FERC is confident in our ability to take the steps necessary to address and resolve the challenges we are facing."

Currently, ERCOT has nine transmission construction projects either begun or under review. Eight of those projects are slated for completion by December 2002. The FERC report commented that "As the transmission system improves, broader sources of supply should become available throughout the ERCOT system."FERC also stressed that ERCOT's grid problems are being "aggressively"addressed and that the reliability of the grid does not appear to be compromised in any way.

The ERCOT Transmission System operates within the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) guidelines and is administered by ERCOT. Currently, the ERCOT reliability region is made up of ten control areas encompassing approximately 200,000 square miles or 75 percent of Texas. ERCOT is a network of long distance, high voltage transmission lines and substations that carry electricity to local utilities for distribution to 12 million customers, or nearly 85 percent of customer load in Texas. The transmission system stretches across approximately 37,000 circuit miles. Except for three direct current tie lines, the ERCOT grid is separated electrically from the rest of the U.S.

In conjunction with completion of the additional transmission projects, ERCOT will see an increase in generating capacity of over 5,500 MW by June 1, 2001 when the Pilot Program for the new market begins. That figure will represent an 8.5 percent increase over the available capacity from summer 2000, when an all-time record peak demand of 57,606 MW was set. There was a 5 percent demand increase in 2000 over 1999. ERCOT officials feel confident that even if temperatures soar into the three-digit range again for an extended period of time next summer, that there should be adequate generation capacity to meet demand.

Although the state's power generation capabilities for this winter exceed peak load forecasts, ERCOT officials are still quietly optimistic. "We have just completed an assessment of winter 2000/2001,"said Noel. "We are estimating an internal peak demand this winter of 42,018 MW, due in part to the expected cooler than normal temperatures and the load growth. We were prepared this past summer when we hit an all-time peak, and we feel that we are equally as prepared this winter to handle a demand that is anticipated to be nearly 3,000 MW higher than experienced last year."The winter peak for 1999/2000 was 39,075 MW. The all-time Texas winter peak demand of 40,970 MW occurred on January 13, 1997.