PRR696

Date	Gov Body		Next Steps
02/22/2007	PRS	Approved	None
12/14/2006	PRS		Discussion at the ERCOT Load Forecasting Workshop
11/16/2006	PRS		PRS consideration

Date	Gov Body	Motion	Result	Against	Abstentions
02/22/2007	PRS	Grant the Request for Wthdrawal	Passed	0	0
12/14/2006	PRS	To table PRR until after the January Forecasting Forum.	Passed	0	1 Consumer

Status:	Withdrawn
Date Posted:	10/17/2006
Sponsor:	Deutsche Bank
Urgent:	No
Sections:	4.2, Scheduling-Related Duties of ERCOT
Description:	This PRR would amend current Protocols to include the measure of forecast error (i.e., ERCOT’s Mean Absolute Percent Error, or MAPE). Current protocols require ERCOT to provide a load forecast and the actual load. This PRR would isolate the forecast for the Day Ahead market at 1600 hours and at midnight. Additionally, the PRR would require ERCOT to post and maintain an up-to-date historical series for the monthly average MAPE data. Lastly, this PRR would require ERCOT to segregate the weather forecast error from the overall load forecast error.
Reason:	Load forecast error is a standard tool used to measure supply/demand forecasts and to enhance market efficiency. Publishing these statistics and maintaining an historical times series of the monthly average MAPE data would provide greater transparency to all market participants.