Resource Adequacy

ERCOT counts on an adequate supply of electric generation to meet demand and maintain capacity reserves to help support grid reliability if shortfalls occur.

This section includes access to ERCOT market studies and analysis materials related to resource adequacy as well as ERCOT short- and long-term forecast reports on generation supply and demand.

Reports produced prior to 2012 are located in the yearly archive section of Reports and Presentations

All other archives are located at the bottom of the page.

Drought Risk

ERCOT developed a drought risk monitoring tool to screen for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. The documents available in this section include summaries of the results of this analysis, documentation of the tool methodology, and other related reports.

Drought Risk Analysis Reports
Related Documents

Monthly Generator Interconnection Status Reports

View the latest public interconnection information on generation resources in the ERCOT region.

Resource Capacity Trend Charts

Charts and accompanying data showing annual changes in resource capacity by fuel type for the ERCOT Region, incorporating both historical additions and planned projects being studied as part of the interconnection request process. The chart are updated on a monthly basis, and include natural gas, wind, solar, and battery storage resource types.

Resource Adequacy Assessments

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA)

The SARA report serves as an early indicator of the risk that ERCOT may need to call an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 (EEA1) due to having insufficient operating reserves during seasonal peak electric demand periods. It uses a scenario approach to illustrate a range of resource adequacy outcomes based on extreme system conditions. The SARA report relies on projected resource capabilities and peak demand forecasts similar to the CDR report. However, unlike the CDR, it incorporates generator outage trends to determine the expected amount of resource capacity available for operating reserves. 

Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) Report

This biannual report contains a multi-year forecast of summer/winter peak electricity demand and expected generation resources, along with the calculation of Planning Reserve Margins (PRMs). The PRM represents the excess resource capacity available to cover uncertainties in future peak electricity demand, generator availability and new resource supply. The PRM is expressed as a percentage of firm peak demand (i.e., demand that is not subject to interruption in exchange for incentive payments).

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

This section consists of documents and data files pertaining to the Economically Optimum Reserve Margin (EORM) reporting initiative, which was authorized by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as part of Project Number 42302, "Review of the Reliability Standard in the ERCOT Region." The current minimum target reserve margin established by the ERCOT Board of Directors is 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of unexpectedly high demand or levels of generation plant outages.

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak average capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.