Itron Evaluation of ERCOT's Forecasting Methodology
In December 2013, ERCOT engaged Itron to evaluate a new long-term forecasting framework. The framework includes a neural network (NN) model for each ERCOT zone (Zone) estimated over multiple historic periods and forecasted with a range of historic weather patterns.
(May 02, 2014 – pdf – 1.1 MB)
Itron ERCOT Growth Index Evaluation
In this Summary, Itron addresses the Growth Index and presents an updated recommendation on the multiple neural network models.
(May 02, 2014 – pdf – 4.1 MB)
Weather Zone Non-Coincident Peak Forecast
Contains weather zone non-coincident summer peak demand forecasts for 2014 – 2024 (50/50 forecast). Also contains historical non-coincident peak demands.
(Sep 16, 2014 – xls – 36 KB)
ERCOT Peak Demand Scenarios
Contains ERCOT summer peak demand forecast scenarios for 2014 – 2024. These scenarios are based on using historical weather years in the forecast model. Also includes ERCOT’s summer peak demand forecast (50/50 forecast) and the 90th percentile forecast.
(May 08, 2015 – xls – 33 KB)
90th percentile Summer NCP by weather zone
Contains the 90th percentile weather zone summer peak demand forecasts for 2014 – 2029. Also includes historical weather zone summer peak demands.
(Jun 25, 2014 – xls – 36.5 KB)