Chris Coleman, ERCOT Senior Meteorologist
Updated Friday, October 23
General Discussion: The first of two cold fronts is moving through the state today. A much stronger cold front will move through Monday, resulting in the coldest temperatures since last February. The second front will result in below-normal temperatures across most of the ERCOT system through next Friday. The strongest cold anomalies will be in West Texas on Monday and Tuesday. Hard freezes are expected both mornings in the Panhandle, and close to the freezing mark elsewhere in West Texas. Along with this colder air, a mix of frozen precipitation is likely over the Panhandle early next week. There’s some uncertainty as to whether the precipitation will fall as mostly rain in the West and Far West zones, or whether some of the rain freezes. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer on Wednesday, likely ending any chances for frozen precipitation. Any precipitation that falls next week east of West Texas will be more scattered, light and non-freezing early in the week, with the best chance of significant rainfall for the large cities coming on Wednesday. Drier with warmer (but not hot) temperatures late next week.
Today: A moderately strong cold front will move through Texas today, resulting in lower humidity and cooler temperatures through Saturday. The front moved through Dallas this morning and will move through Central Texas early afternoon. Houston will see the front arrive by late-afternoon to early-evening. While this front isn’t as strong as Monday’s, there will be a noticeable drop in temperatures. Austin, for example, will reach the low-80s by around noon but then quickly fall into the low-to-mid-70s for the first half of the afternoon and 60s for the second half. West Texas has already seen the front go through and won’t make it out of the 50s today. An area of rain and thunderstorms over North Texas this morning will drop southeastward with the front. Good chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms in Central Texas by around noon, and Houston later this afternoon.
This Weekend: Cool temperatures but pleasant with dry conditions on Saturday. Highs in the 60s and 70s. Not as cool Saturday night, then warming substantially on Sunday. 80s and a few locations in the 90s Sunday afternoon. The next front will move into the Panhandle Sunday afternoon and through much of West Texas by daybreak Monday morning. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind this strong front, nearing the freezing mark Sunday night in the Panhandle. Some frozen precipitation is likely to develop Sunday night over the Panhandle, and there may be light rain over parts of northern West Texas.