Chris Coleman, ERCOT Senior Meteorologist
Updated Friday, January 17
General Discussion: Damp, gray, but generally mild weather continues for one more day before a cold front moves through the ERCOT region between tonight and Saturday afternoon. That front will bring an end to the rain, knock down the humidity, and bring back some sunshine. Temperatures will trend colder, but it will be short lived. Extreme cold is not expected; however, it may feel significantly colder since most of Texas has been quite mild in recent weeks. Freezes will be limited to mostly North and West Texas. The coldest period will fall on Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures won’t be much warmer on Tuesday, but that’s when we will begin to see an increase in wind and cloud cover, ahead of a midweek storm system. Rain, and possibly some frozen precipitation, will spread over West Texas beginning on Tuesday. The precipitation will then spread across most of the rest of Texas on Wednesday into Thursday. Some significant rainfall looks likely. Mild, warmer air will also accompany this precipitation, as it will be tracking from the Pacific. This will put a quick end to the early week chill, but clouds and rain will limit the warming in the late week. While there is no evidence of any strongly cold days this weekend through next week, the very warm temperatures we’ve experienced recently will also be much more difficult to replicate.
Today: Some freezing rain occurred last night into early this morning in the Texas Panhandle. That is done now. Today’s precipitation will be in the form of non-freezing rain, and again impacting a large portion of ERCOT. North and West Texas will see the most significant rainfall, as well as the possibility a few embedded thunderstorms. The precipitation will be more scattered into Central Texas, but Austin and San Antonio will see occasional showers and maybe even a thunderstorm today and tonight. Precipitation will end as a cold front moves through, reaching Dallas-Fort Worth a couple of hours before daybreak on Saturday.
This Weekend: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the first half of Saturday. An area of rain generally along and near a line between Tyler and Del Rio will be present early-Saturday. The rain area is likely to become more prominent in Northeast and South Texas by late-morning, diminishing in between. Rain will then exit East Texas during the first half of Saturday afternoon, but linger over the Rio Grande Valley Saturday afternoon into evening before ending. A slow clearing will be seen behind the front, becoming mostly sunny Saturday afternoon in West Texas. Saturday temperatures will range from 50s win the west to 70s south and along the coast, turning colder Saturday night as skies trend clearer. Most of Texas will see 30s Sunday morning, though West Texas will experience 20s and South Texas 50s. It will be mostly sunny and seasonally cool Sunday afternoon with highs mostly in the 50s, then chilly again Sunday night with Monday (MLK Day) fairly similar to Sunday.